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Elo Increase per Doubling
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Don Dailey



Joined: 29 Apr 2008
Posts: 4502
PostPost subject: Re: Elo Increase per Doubling    Posted: Tue May 08, 2012 12:10 pm Reply to topic Reply with quote
Ed,

What is "moves changed?" Do you mean the move is changed in the final iteration?


Rebel wrote:
Adam Hair wrote:
The next piece of data is a comparison of move selections made by Gaviota 0.84 when restricted to different depths. I randomly selected 1000 positions from the positions that come with the sim tool, then modified the tool so that it gave "go depth x" instead of "go infinite":

Code:
Key:
  1) Gaviota 0.84 depth 02(time: 50 ms  scale: 1.0)
  2) Gaviota 0.84 depth 03(time: 50 ms  scale: 1.0)
  3) Gaviota 0.84 depth 04(time: 50 ms  scale: 1.0)
  4) Gaviota 0.84 depth 05(time: 50 ms  scale: 1.0)
  5) Gaviota 0.84 depth 06(time: 50 ms  scale: 1.0)
  6) Gaviota 0.84 depth 07(time: 50 ms  scale: 1.0)
  7) Gaviota 0.84 depth 08(time: 50 ms  scale: 1.0)
  8) Gaviota 0.84 depth 09(time: 50 ms  scale: 1.0)
  9) Gaviota 0.84 depth 10(time: 50 ms  scale: 1.0)
 10) Gaviota 0.84 depth 11(time: 50 ms  scale: 1.0)
 11) Gaviota 0.84 depth 12(time: 50 ms  scale: 1.0)
 12) Gaviota 0.84 depth 13(time: 50 ms  scale: 1.0)
 13) Gaviota 0.84 depth14(time: 50 ms  scale: 1.0)

         1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13
  1.  ----- 59.50 50.10 45.80 42.10 38.60 36.80 37.00 34.80 33.70 33.40 31.80 30.60
  2.  59.50 ----- 66.60 57.30 53.00 46.90 44.00 43.30 41.80 40.10 40.10 36.50 36.00
  3.  50.10 66.60 ----- 71.20 63.00 57.30 52.40 48.50 46.40 44.60 43.70 41.60 39.70
  4.  45.80 57.30 71.20 ----- 76.10 64.70 57.80 53.90 50.90 47.60 47.40 45.60 43.90
  5.  42.10 53.00 63.00 76.10 ----- 76.90 65.80 61.20 56.50 53.00 52.40 49.10 47.60
  6.  38.60 46.90 57.30 64.70 76.90 ----- 79.40 71.40 63.80 59.50 57.30 53.90 52.90
  7.  36.80 44.00 52.40 57.80 65.80 79.40 ----- 83.20 73.30 67.20 63.20 60.00 56.30
  8.  37.00 43.30 48.50 53.90 61.20 71.40 83.20 ----- 82.20 73.90 69.90 64.80 61.70
  9.  34.80 41.80 46.40 50.90 56.50 63.80 73.30 82.20 ----- 84.90 78.70 71.30 66.00
 10.  33.70 40.10 44.60 47.60 53.00 59.50 67.20 73.90 84.90 ----- 86.50 77.50 72.50
 11.  33.40 40.10 43.70 47.40 52.40 57.30 63.20 69.90 78.70 86.50 ----- 81.10 76.60
 12.  31.80 36.50 41.60 45.60 49.10 53.90 60.00 64.80 71.30 77.50 81.10 ----- 82.80
 13.  30.60 36.00 39.70 43.90 47.60 52.90 56.30 61.70 66.00 72.50 76.60 82.80 -----


Again, there does appear to be a trend, but not conclusively. In fact, the similarity between successive plies actually reduces twice, and then increases again.

If I had the resources, I would try even higher plies.

My speculation is that as the average depth searched becomes deeper and deeper, it is less likely in a game to find a better move than you could find searching one ply less. To me, that would seem to translate into less increase in Elo per doubling.

I do think I will revisit both of these types of measurements. Also, Miguel has suggested to me to measure the increase in Elo when the number of nodes is doubled.

Here is another statistic that tells the same story. You will find it as SEARCH.TXT in any ProDeo folder. Massive changes during the first iterations, then stabilizing.

Code:

                                    SEARCH OVERVIEW       
                                    ===============       

Depth           Moves                    Moves                   Moves   
               Changed                  Changed                 Changed   
             Middle Game              Normal Endgame         Simple Endgame

 1     287628 - 239661 = 83.3%   182770 - 130099 = 71.2% 137389 - 85574 = 62.3%
 2     285662 - 128595 = 45.0%   180799 - 66267 = 36.7%  135944 - 43882 = 32.3%
 3     273200 - 93203 = 34.1%    172731 - 44025 = 25.5%  128720 - 33322 = 25.9%
 4     265436 - 71316 = 26.9%    168022 - 34396 = 20.5%  124031 - 21202 = 17.1%
 5     248266 - 69761 = 28.1%    165326 - 33659 = 20.4%  120118 - 23454 = 19.5%
 6     234111 - 62769 = 26.8%    164107 - 31491 = 19.2%  117806 - 20101 = 17.1%
 7     195376 - 46723 = 23.9%    163587 - 28854 = 17.6%  116897 - 18995 = 16.2%
 8     193120 - 41092 = 21.3%    161748 - 26394 = 16.3%  115869 - 17255 = 14.9%
 9     174273 - 30610 = 17.6%    147300 - 20968 = 14.2%  115092 - 15863 = 13.8%
10     139846 - 21779 = 15.6%    119788 - 13869 = 11.6%  113580 - 14486 = 12.8%
11     102808 - 15820 = 15.4%     94937 - 9607 = 10.1%    95777 - 10773 = 11.2%
12      72567 - 9435 = 13.0%      74857 - 6347 =  8.5%    81248 - 7541 =  9.3%
13      48367 - 5607 = 11.6%      57179 - 4111 =  7.2%    68112 - 5507 =  8.1%
14      28744 - 2615 =  9.1%      43487 - 2528 =  5.8%    55727 - 4074 =  7.3%
15      14545 - 923 =  6.3%       33337 - 1577 =  4.7%    44482 - 2939 =  6.6%
16       6744 - 226 =  3.4%       26180 - 729 =  2.8%     34434 - 1920 =  5.6%
17       3472 - 46 =  1.3%        21286 - 350 =  1.6%     26435 - 1241 =  4.7%
18       2494 - 6 =  0.2%         18288 - 133 =  0.7%     20672 - 776 =  3.8%
19       2196 - 2 =  0.0%         16875 - 55 =  0.3%      16191 - 392 =  2.4%
20       2090 - 0 =  0.0%         16214 - 18 =  0.1%      13191 - 233 =  1.8%
21       2045 - 0 =  0.0%         15871 - 7 =  0.0%       11327 - 157 =  1.4%

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Subject Author Date/Time
Elo Increase per Doubling Adam Hair Mon May 07, 2012 11:40 am
      Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Julien MARCEL Mon May 07, 2012 12:04 pm
            Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Adam Hair Mon May 07, 2012 4:48 pm
                  Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Julien MARCEL Mon May 07, 2012 4:54 pm
            Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Adam Hair Mon May 07, 2012 8:50 pm
                  Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Julien MARCEL Mon May 07, 2012 9:00 pm
                        Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Mark Pearce Thu May 10, 2012 4:43 pm
      Re: Elo Increase per Doubling H.G.Muller Mon May 07, 2012 12:13 pm
            Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Michel Van den Bergh Mon May 07, 2012 2:01 pm
            Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Adam Hair Mon May 07, 2012 5:12 pm
                  Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Mon May 07, 2012 6:40 pm
                        Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Robert Wagner Campos Tue May 08, 2012 12:38 am
                              Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 3:32 am
                                    Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Adam Hair Tue May 08, 2012 10:02 am
                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Julien MARCEL Tue May 08, 2012 10:55 am
                                                Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Adam Hair Tue May 08, 2012 8:08 pm
                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 11:29 am
                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Kai Laskos Tue May 08, 2012 11:59 am
                                                Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Adam Hair Tue May 08, 2012 8:13 pm
                                                      Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Kai Laskos Tue May 08, 2012 10:21 pm
                                                            Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 10:52 pm
                                                            Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Adam Hair Tue May 08, 2012 11:14 pm
                                                                  Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Kai Laskos Wed May 09, 2012 12:20 am
                                                                        Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Adam Hair Wed May 09, 2012 2:44 am
                                                                              Re: Elo Increase per Doubling H.G.Muller Wed May 09, 2012 8:05 am
                                                                                    Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Adam Hair Wed May 09, 2012 5:12 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Larry Kaufman Thu May 10, 2012 3:11 am
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Thu May 10, 2012 5:03 am
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Larry Kaufman Thu May 10, 2012 5:19 am
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Thu May 10, 2012 12:43 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Peter Österlund Thu May 10, 2012 4:59 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Julien MARCEL Thu May 10, 2012 5:09 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Thu May 10, 2012 5:41 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Thu May 10, 2012 5:46 pm
                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Ed Schroder Tue May 08, 2012 12:09 pm
                                                Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 12:10 pm
                                                      Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Ed Schroder Tue May 08, 2012 12:28 pm
                                                            Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 12:36 pm
                                                                  Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Ed Schroder Tue May 08, 2012 1:15 pm
                                                                        Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 2:37 pm
                                                                              Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Julien MARCEL Tue May 08, 2012 3:15 pm
                                                                                    Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 6:15 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Peter Österlund Tue May 08, 2012 8:06 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 8:25 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Peter Österlund Tue May 08, 2012 9:00 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Julien MARCEL Tue May 08, 2012 9:02 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 9:06 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Wed May 09, 2012 4:26 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Peter Österlund Wed May 09, 2012 4:52 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Wed May 09, 2012 5:19 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Thu May 10, 2012 1:41 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Thu May 10, 2012 4:52 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Adam Hair Thu May 10, 2012 9:07 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Thu May 10, 2012 10:55 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Adam Hair Fri May 11, 2012 12:46 am
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Adam Hair Fri May 11, 2012 1:06 am
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Wed May 09, 2012 5:00 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Adam Hair Tue May 08, 2012 9:05 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 9:18 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Adam Hair Tue May 08, 2012 11:26 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Wed May 09, 2012 2:50 am
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Adam Hair Tue May 15, 2012 3:17 am
                                                                                    Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 6:23 pm
                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Ed Schroder Tue May 08, 2012 12:18 pm
                                                Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 12:25 pm
                                                      Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 12:27 pm
                                                            Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Robert Hyatt Tue May 08, 2012 3:36 pm
                                                                  Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 5:32 pm
      Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Daniel Shawul Fri May 11, 2012 5:48 pm
            Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Fri May 11, 2012 6:30 pm
                  Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Julien MARCEL Fri May 11, 2012 6:52 pm
                        Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Fri May 11, 2012 7:05 pm
                  Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Daniel Shawul Fri May 11, 2012 7:08 pm
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