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Elo Increase per Doubling
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Adam Hair



Joined: 06 May 2009
Posts: 1639
Location: Fuquay-Varina, North Carolina
PostPost subject: Re: Elo Increase per Doubling    Posted: Mon May 07, 2012 5:12 pm Reply to topic Reply with quote
hgm wrote:
Well, I always counted 70 Elo / doubling (100 * ln(TC)), and what you find (slightly over 80) is not shockingly different. It is still conceivable there could be a small systematic error due to the fact that the fastest Gaviota version is tested only against stronger opponents.

Another possible source of error is communication lag: at 6"+0.1" you have about 200 msec/move, and the delay is not completely negligible. But if there is 20 msec delay, the effective thinking time goes from 180 to 380, when you 'double' it, which is actually a factor 2.11.

It is also dangerous to draw any conclusion from measurements on just a single engine. Perhaps Gaviota does have an above-average scaling.


I am not trying to suggest that the measurement at the longer time control disproves 70 Elo per doubling. I am just fairly certain, though I have not accumulated enough data to prove it, that approximately 70 Elo per doubling does not hold as the speed/time varies substantially. I base this on two things I have observed. First, I have used the similarity tool to compare Gaviota's move selection as its depth varies. The move selection correlation between successive plies increases as the number of plies increase. Second, I have done some self-tests for Fruit and Houdini that seem to indicate that the increase in Elo grows smaller as the ply depth increases.

Perhaps I can post all my data this evening and we can discuss possible errors and interpretations.
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Subject Author Date/Time
Elo Increase per Doubling Adam Hair Mon May 07, 2012 11:40 am
      Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Julien MARCEL Mon May 07, 2012 12:04 pm
            Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Adam Hair Mon May 07, 2012 4:48 pm
                  Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Julien MARCEL Mon May 07, 2012 4:54 pm
            Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Adam Hair Mon May 07, 2012 8:50 pm
                  Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Julien MARCEL Mon May 07, 2012 9:00 pm
                        Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Mark Pearce Thu May 10, 2012 4:43 pm
      Re: Elo Increase per Doubling H.G.Muller Mon May 07, 2012 12:13 pm
            Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Michel Van den Bergh Mon May 07, 2012 2:01 pm
            Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Adam Hair Mon May 07, 2012 5:12 pm
                  Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Mon May 07, 2012 6:40 pm
                        Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Robert Wagner Campos Tue May 08, 2012 12:38 am
                              Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 3:32 am
                                    Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Adam Hair Tue May 08, 2012 10:02 am
                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Julien MARCEL Tue May 08, 2012 10:55 am
                                                Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Adam Hair Tue May 08, 2012 8:08 pm
                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 11:29 am
                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Kai Laskos Tue May 08, 2012 11:59 am
                                                Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Adam Hair Tue May 08, 2012 8:13 pm
                                                      Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Kai Laskos Tue May 08, 2012 10:21 pm
                                                            Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 10:52 pm
                                                            Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Adam Hair Tue May 08, 2012 11:14 pm
                                                                  Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Kai Laskos Wed May 09, 2012 12:20 am
                                                                        Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Adam Hair Wed May 09, 2012 2:44 am
                                                                              Re: Elo Increase per Doubling H.G.Muller Wed May 09, 2012 8:05 am
                                                                                    Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Adam Hair Wed May 09, 2012 5:12 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Larry Kaufman Thu May 10, 2012 3:11 am
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Thu May 10, 2012 5:03 am
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Larry Kaufman Thu May 10, 2012 5:19 am
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Thu May 10, 2012 12:43 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Peter Österlund Thu May 10, 2012 4:59 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Julien MARCEL Thu May 10, 2012 5:09 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Thu May 10, 2012 5:41 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Thu May 10, 2012 5:46 pm
                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Ed Schroder Tue May 08, 2012 12:09 pm
                                                Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 12:10 pm
                                                      Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Ed Schroder Tue May 08, 2012 12:28 pm
                                                            Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 12:36 pm
                                                                  Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Ed Schroder Tue May 08, 2012 1:15 pm
                                                                        Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 2:37 pm
                                                                              Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Julien MARCEL Tue May 08, 2012 3:15 pm
                                                                                    Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 6:15 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Peter Österlund Tue May 08, 2012 8:06 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 8:25 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Peter Österlund Tue May 08, 2012 9:00 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Julien MARCEL Tue May 08, 2012 9:02 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 9:06 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Wed May 09, 2012 4:26 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Peter Österlund Wed May 09, 2012 4:52 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Wed May 09, 2012 5:19 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Thu May 10, 2012 1:41 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Thu May 10, 2012 4:52 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Adam Hair Thu May 10, 2012 9:07 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Thu May 10, 2012 10:55 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Adam Hair Fri May 11, 2012 12:46 am
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Adam Hair Fri May 11, 2012 1:06 am
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Wed May 09, 2012 5:00 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Adam Hair Tue May 08, 2012 9:05 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 9:18 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Adam Hair Tue May 08, 2012 11:26 pm
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Wed May 09, 2012 2:50 am
                                                                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Adam Hair Tue May 15, 2012 3:17 am
                                                                                    Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 6:23 pm
                                          Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Ed Schroder Tue May 08, 2012 12:18 pm
                                                Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 12:25 pm
                                                      Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 12:27 pm
                                                            Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Robert Hyatt Tue May 08, 2012 3:36 pm
                                                                  Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Tue May 08, 2012 5:32 pm
      Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Daniel Shawul Fri May 11, 2012 5:48 pm
            Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Fri May 11, 2012 6:30 pm
                  Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Julien MARCEL Fri May 11, 2012 6:52 pm
                        Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Don Dailey Fri May 11, 2012 7:05 pm
                  Re: Elo Increase per Doubling Daniel Shawul Fri May 11, 2012 7:08 pm
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