Larry I believe that Bonkras can beat the Shogi Champ NOW...

[mschribr]

So Mr.Yonenaga Vs Bonkras is compared to David Levy vs Deep Thought 1989, in that case we are getting very close to conquer the best Shogi player.

From 1989 to 1997 is 8 years. So we are 8 years away or 2020, which was my guess when a computer will beat the world Shogi champion.

[pichy]

So Mr.Yonenaga Vs Bonkras is compared to David Levy vs Deep Thought 1989, in that case we are getting very close to conquer the best Shogi player.

From 1989 to 1997 is 8 years. So we are 8 years away or 2020, which was my guess when a computer will beat the world Shogi champion.

Sorry I don't agree with you it is much closer than what you think. Bonkras using parallel clusters will defeast the current champion either next year or the following like Larry Kaufman predicted.

[mschribr]

So Mr.Yonenaga Vs Bonkras is compared to David Levy vs Deep Thought 1989, in that case we are getting very close to conquer the best Shogi player.

From 1989 to 1997 is 8 years. So we are 8 years away or 2020, which was my guess when a computer will beat the world Shogi champion.

Sorry I don't agree with you it is much closer than what you think. Bonkras using parallel clusters will defeast the current champion either next year or the following like Larry Kaufman predicted.

Larry has been making the same prediction since 2007. He predicted in 2007 that a computer would beat the Shogi champion in 3 years. In 2008, again he predicted in 3 years that a computer would beat the Shogi champion. Again, in 2011 a computer will beat the Shogi champion in 3 years. Larry’s predictions are not worth much. You sound like the Artificial Intelligence experts from 1968. They said a computer would beat the world chess champion in 10 years. Boy were they off.

[lkaufman]

Here is how I see the situation. First, Mr. Yonenaga is no longer on a par with Moriuchi or Habu or Watanabe (the top 3), but to compare his shogi level to David Levy in chess is ridiculous. Based on his level when he retired and the amount of time since then, I would expect that he plays about the level of the bottom class of pros, which is to say at the same level as the very best of amateurs. So clearly still "grandmaster" standard, but not Elite grandmaster standard in chess parlance. By the way, Karpov still plays at Grandmaster level, just not elite level. I'm sure I would be no match for Karpov even now, and I earned the GM title 3 years ago and have not declined appreciably yet. Okay, I'm a pretty weak GM, but still...
To define when a computer reaches the level of the top 3 pros, you must specify the time limit. I think it is quite likely that Bonkras is already on a par with the top 3 at 30" per move, the fastest time limit used in any televised "rapid" games. At 3 hours per side (plus 1 minute per move thereafter), a fairly typical "pro" time limit, I think it will happen between 1 and 2 years from now; one mid-level pro told me he thinks Bonkras would already beat him at such a time limit. At 9 hours per side (plus 1 min) over two days, the "meijin" time limit, maybe we need 3 more years.
I propose we define 3 hours plus 1 minute as the time limit for purposes of talking about relative strength of human and computer in shogi.
Finally I'll say that by the end of the decade, pros will need to take a lance handicap from the best engine to have any chance of victory, just as they need pawn handicap in chess to have such a chance now.

[pichy]

Here is how I see the situation. First, Mr. Yonenaga is no longer on a par with Moriuchi or Habu or Watanabe (the top 3), but to compare his shogi level to David Levy in chess is ridiculous. Based on his level when he retired and the amount of time since then, I would expect that he plays about the level of the bottom class of pros, which is to say at the same level as the very best of amateurs. So clearly still "grandmaster" standard, but not Elite grandmaster standard in chess parlance. By the way, Karpov still plays at Grandmaster level, just not elite level. I'm sure I would be no match for Karpov even now, and I earned the GM title 3 years ago and have not declined appreciably yet. Okay, I'm a pretty weak GM, but still...
To define when a computer reaches the level of the top 3 pros, you must specify the time limit. I think it is quite likely that Bonkras is already on a par with the top 3 at 30" per move, the fastest time limit used in any televised "rapid" games. At 3 hours per side (plus 1 minute per move thereafter), a fairly typical "pro" time limit, I think it will happen between 1 and 2 years from now; one mid-level pro told me he thinks Bonkras would already beat him at such a time limit. At 9 hours per side (plus 1 min) over two days, the "meijin" time limit, maybe we need 3 more years.
I propose we define 3 hours plus 1 minute as the time limit for purposes of talking about relative strength of human and computer in shogi.
Finally I'll say that by the end of the decade, pros will need to take a lance handicap from the best engine to have any chance of victory, just as they need pawn handicap in chess to have such a chance now.

Mr. Kaufman, herfe are some games played between Mr. Habu vs GPS Shogi 2 years ago which you can evaluate, but I am pretty sure that Bonkras using Parallel clusters at game in 30 minutes can give Mr. Habu a hell of a challenge


http://wdoor.c.u-tokyo.ac.jp/shogi/view ... 190007.csa

http://wdoor.c.u-tokyo.ac.jp/shogi/view ... 190007.csa

http://wdoor.c.u-tokyo.ac.jp/shogi/view ... 130005.csa

http://wdoor.c.u-tokyo.ac.jp/shogi/view ... 190007.csa

[mschribr]

First, Mr. Yonenaga is no longer on a par with Moriuchi or Habu or Watanabe (the top 3), but to compare his shogi level to David Levy in chess is ridiculous. At 3 hours per side (plus 1 minute per move thereafter), a fairly typical "pro" time limit, I think it will happen between 1 and 2 years from now;

The game Yonenaga played Bonkras shows Yonenaga is not playing at the professional level. Even if Karpov is a weak GM, Yonenaga is 9 years older than Karpov and Yonenaga has been inactive for more years than Karpov. Yonenaga is weaker than Karpov and weaker than a pro (GM). You could beat Yonenaga. Do you remember you changed your predictions of when a computer will beat a pro many times before?

[mschribr]

Mr. Kaufman, herfe are some games played between Mr. Habu vs GPS Shogi 2 years ago which you can evaluate, but I am pretty sure that Bonkras using Parallel clusters at game in 30 minutes can give Mr. Habu a hell of a challenge
http://wdoor.c.u-tokyo.ac.jp/shogi/view ... 190007.csa

That is not champion Habu on floodgate. There are restrictions for a pro to play a computer. I never heard Habu got permission to play on floodgate. It was a major event when Yonenaga did it and he is not a major pro. For Habu to play a computer would be even bigger. Habu is supposed to get 780 million yen for playing a computer. Somebody created an account on floodgate with the name Habu. That’s all.

[Graham Banks]

http://www.google.co.nz/#hl=en&gs_nf=1& ... 1bfb4d210f

This google search provides a lot of links to sites and forums about computer shogi.

[lkaufman]

First, Mr. Yonenaga is no longer on a par with Moriuchi or Habu or Watanabe (the top 3), but to compare his shogi level to David Levy in chess is ridiculous. At 3 hours per side (plus 1 minute per move thereafter), a fairly typical "pro" time limit, I think it will happen between 1 and 2 years from now;

The game Yonenaga played Bonkras shows Yonenaga is not playing at the professional level. Even if Karpov is a weak GM, Yonenaga is 9 years older than Karpov and Yonenaga has been inactive for more years than Karpov. Yonenaga is weaker than Karpov and weaker than a pro (GM). You could beat Yonenaga. Do you remember you changed your predictions of when a computer will beat a pro many times before?

I wouldn't judge either Yonenaga or the computer by one game. I appreciate your confidence in me, but there is no way I could beat Mr. Yonenaga without a handicap (I once did beat him giving HIM bishop handicap, but that was in chess, not shogi!). I have indeed changed my predictions somewhat, but basically it looks like the crossover will happen inside the range of my predictions.

[pichy]

http://www.google.co.nz/#hl=en&gs_nf=1& ... 1bfb4d210f

This google search provides a lot of links to sites and forums about computer shogi.

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