Jesús Muñoz
Joined: 13 Jul 2011
Posts: 689
Location: Madrid, Spain.
|
 Post subject: Perft(14) estimate after averaging 387 MC perft samples. Posted: Fri Mar 30, 2012 3:11 pm |
  |
|
Hello:
I made a great effort this week and I managed to run 72 new MonteCarlo Perft(14) samples:
| Code: |
perftmc 14 (GNU 5.07.173b w32):
316) m=6.189098e+019 sd=1.110376e+016 ci(99%)=[6.186238e+019,6.191959e+019] n=501279682 sdn=2.486053e+020 t=1815.70s
317) m=6.187335e+019 sd=1.092277e+016 ci(99%)=[6.184522e+019,6.190149e+019] n=501280104 sdn=2.445531e+020 t=1808.05s
318) m=6.189883e+019 sd=1.075027e+016 ci(99%)=[6.187113e+019,6.192652e+019] n=501280166 sdn=2.406908e+020 t=1804.05s
319) m=6.187476e+019 sd=1.032256e+016 ci(99%)=[6.184817e+019,6.190135e+019] n=501280720 sdn=2.311149e+020 t=1806.30s
320) m=6.188253e+019 sd=1.062659e+016 ci(99%)=[6.185516e+019,6.190991e+019] n=501280300 sdn=2.379218e+020 t=1804.80s
321) m=6.187461e+019 sd=1.023809e+016 ci(99%)=[6.184824e+019,6.190099e+019] n=501280820 sdn=2.292236e+020 t=1816.36s
322) m=6.185577e+019 sd=1.079434e+016 ci(99%)=[6.182796e+019,6.188358e+019] n=501279170 sdn=2.416774e+020 t=1808.05s
323) m=6.186658e+019 sd=1.030075e+016 ci(99%)=[6.184004e+019,6.189311e+019] n=501278519 sdn=2.306260e+020 t=1804.92s
324) m=6.185466e+019 sd=1.141046e+016 ci(99%)=[6.182527e+019,6.188406e+019] n=501278548 sdn=2.554717e+020 t=1805.81s
325) m=6.188838e+019 sd=1.020840e+016 ci(99%)=[6.186208e+019,6.191467e+019] n=501279172 sdn=2.285585e+020 t=1803.83s
326) m=6.187637e+019 sd=1.032392e+016 ci(99%)=[6.184977e+019,6.190296e+019] n=501280986 sdn=2.311454e+020 t=1805.41s
327) m=6.188798e+019 sd=1.050154e+016 ci(99%)=[6.186093e+019,6.191503e+019] n=501278942 sdn=2.351216e+020 t=1816.25s
328) m=6.188280e+019 sd=1.033611e+016 ci(99%)=[6.185617e+019,6.190943e+019] n=501279881 sdn=2.314181e+020 t=1778.20s
329) m=6.187395e+019 sd=1.106646e+016 ci(99%)=[6.184544e+019,6.190245e+019] n=501278366 sdn=2.477698e+020 t=1779.67s
330) m=6.189515e+019 sd=1.077388e+016 ci(99%)=[6.186740e+019,6.192291e+019] n=501279786 sdn=2.412193e+020 t=1781.33s
331) m=6.189894e+019 sd=1.057547e+016 ci(99%)=[6.187169e+019,6.192618e+019] n=501279074 sdn=2.367770e+020 t=1805.75s
332) m=6.187619e+019 sd=1.151239e+016 ci(99%)=[6.184654e+019,6.190585e+019] n=501278709 sdn=2.577539e+020 t=1804.94s
333) m=6.189264e+019 sd=1.078235e+016 ci(99%)=[6.186487e+019,6.192042e+019] n=501278426 sdn=2.414088e+020 t=1805.48s
334) m=6.190254e+019 sd=1.056393e+016 ci(99%)=[6.187533e+019,6.192975e+019] n=501278771 sdn=2.365185e+020 t=1816.62s
335) m=6.188394e+019 sd=1.110800e+016 ci(99%)=[6.185533e+019,6.191256e+019] n=501280251 sdn=2.487002e+020 t=1810.36s
336) m=6.187046e+019 sd=1.090335e+016 ci(99%)=[6.184237e+019,6.189854e+019] n=501278914 sdn=2.441179e+020 t=1805.94s
337) m=6.188791e+019 sd=1.041909e+016 ci(99%)=[6.186107e+019,6.191475e+019] n=501279998 sdn=2.332760e+020 t=1807.41s
338) m=6.186743e+019 sd=1.076001e+016 ci(99%)=[6.183971e+019,6.189515e+019] n=501278902 sdn=2.409087e+020 t=1810.19s
339) m=6.188028e+019 sd=1.006258e+016 ci(99%)=[6.185436e+019,6.190621e+019] n=501279413 sdn=2.252938e+020 t=1815.36s
340) m=6.188271e+019 sd=1.069434e+016 ci(99%)=[6.185516e+019,6.191026e+019] n=501280643 sdn=2.394388e+020 t=1806.36s
341) m=6.189357e+019 sd=1.071024e+016 ci(99%)=[6.186598e+019,6.192116e+019] n=501279611 sdn=2.397945e+020 t=1809.88s
342) m=6.186805e+019 sd=1.098051e+016 ci(99%)=[6.183976e+019,6.189634e+019] n=501280148 sdn=2.458458e+020 t=1806.08s
343) m=6.188561e+019 sd=9.367953e+015 ci(99%)=[6.186148e+019,6.190975e+019] n=501279484 sdn=2.097416e+020 t=1805.59s
344) m=6.190626e+019 sd=1.064836e+016 ci(99%)=[6.187883e+019,6.193369e+019] n=501278501 sdn=2.384087e+020 t=1819.44s
345) m=6.188636e+019 sd=1.144078e+016 ci(99%)=[6.185689e+019,6.191583e+019] n=501280317 sdn=2.561510e+020 t=1807.05s
346) m=6.187950e+019 sd=1.105576e+016 ci(99%)=[6.185102e+019,6.190798e+019] n=501281120 sdn=2.475309e+020 t=1791.09s
347) m=6.188679e+019 sd=1.063989e+016 ci(99%)=[6.185938e+019,6.191420e+019] n=501278165 sdn=2.382190e+020 t=1787.62s
348) m=6.188965e+019 sd=1.070164e+016 ci(99%)=[6.186208e+019,6.191722e+019] n=501278544 sdn=2.396017e+020 t=1788.41s
349) m=6.187044e+019 sd=1.042571e+016 ci(99%)=[6.184359e+019,6.189730e+019] n=501281466 sdn=2.334246e+020 t=1794.22s
350) m=6.188965e+019 sd=1.042406e+016 ci(99%)=[6.186280e+019,6.191650e+019] n=501279440 sdn=2.333872e+020 t=1794.53s
351) m=6.189307e+019 sd=1.005459e+016 ci(99%)=[6.186717e+019,6.191897e+019] n=501278525 sdn=2.251148e+020 t=1797.67s
352) m=6.188376e+019 sd=1.100634e+016 ci(99%)=[6.185541e+019,6.191211e+019] n=501279426 sdn=2.464238e+020 t=1784.94s
353) m=6.189820e+019 sd=1.065391e+016 ci(99%)=[6.187076e+019,6.192565e+019] n=501279682 sdn=2.385333e+020 t=1782.67s
354) m=6.189423e+019 sd=1.079883e+016 ci(99%)=[6.186642e+019,6.192205e+019] n=501278159 sdn=2.417776e+020 t=1783.08s
355) m=6.188607e+019 sd=1.128164e+016 ci(99%)=[6.185701e+019,6.191513e+019] n=501280193 sdn=2.525878e+020 t=1782.67s
356) m=6.186525e+019 sd=9.880073e+015 ci(99%)=[6.183980e+019,6.189071e+019] n=501279312 sdn=2.212076e+020 t=1783.89s
357) m=6.187448e+019 sd=1.085169e+016 ci(99%)=[6.184653e+019,6.190243e+019] n=501280786 sdn=2.429618e+020 t=1786.39s
358) m=6.189461e+019 sd=1.045605e+016 ci(99%)=[6.186768e+019,6.192155e+019] n=501279864 sdn=2.341034e+020 t=1805.47s
359) m=6.188247e+019 sd=9.961796e+015 ci(99%)=[6.185681e+019,6.190813e+019] n=501279764 sdn=2.230374e+020 t=1806.86s
360) m=6.187392e+019 sd=9.346828e+015 ci(99%)=[6.184984e+019,6.189799e+019] n=501280156 sdn=2.092688e+020 t=1815.72s
361) m=6.188313e+019 sd=1.027136e+016 ci(99%)=[6.185667e+019,6.190959e+019] n=501278292 sdn=2.299681e+020 t=1806.08s
362) m=6.189396e+019 sd=9.644964e+015 ci(99%)=[6.186912e+019,6.191881e+019] n=501281254 sdn=2.159441e+020 t=1804.73s
363) m=6.190889e+019 sd=1.124874e+016 ci(99%)=[6.187992e+019,6.193787e+019] n=501279972 sdn=2.518511e+020 t=1808.19s
364) m=6.186984e+019 sd=1.050565e+016 ci(99%)=[6.184278e+019,6.189690e+019] n=501281051 sdn=2.352142e+020 t=1815.98s
365) m=6.188480e+019 sd=1.088246e+016 ci(99%)=[6.185677e+019,6.191283e+019] n=501279702 sdn=2.436504e+020 t=1805.66s
366) m=6.188059e+019 sd=1.104004e+016 ci(99%)=[6.185215e+019,6.190902e+019] n=501279774 sdn=2.471786e+020 t=1806.34s
367) m=6.188091e+019 sd=1.164047e+016 ci(99%)=[6.185092e+019,6.191089e+019] n=501279568 sdn=2.606217e+020 t=1809.44s
368) m=6.188450e+019 sd=1.093652e+016 ci(99%)=[6.185633e+019,6.191267e+019] n=501278959 sdn=2.448607e+020 t=1816.70s
369) m=6.190593e+019 sd=1.010070e+016 ci(99%)=[6.187991e+019,6.193195e+019] n=501279866 sdn=2.261474e+020 t=1807.02s
370) m=6.187797e+019 sd=1.030323e+016 ci(99%)=[6.185143e+019,6.190451e+019] n=501279701 sdn=2.306818e+020 t=1774.66s
371) m=6.188279e+019 sd=1.022259e+016 ci(99%)=[6.185646e+019,6.190913e+019] n=501280436 sdn=2.288766e+020 t=1774.97s
372) m=6.190268e+019 sd=1.078192e+016 ci(99%)=[6.187491e+019,6.193045e+019] n=501279802 sdn=2.413995e+020 t=1775.95s
373) m=6.188535e+019 sd=1.010918e+016 ci(99%)=[6.185931e+019,6.191140e+019] n=501281397 sdn=2.263376e+020 t=1805.97s
374) m=6.186664e+019 sd=1.019719e+016 ci(99%)=[6.184037e+019,6.189291e+019] n=501278518 sdn=2.283075e+020 t=1805.08s
375) m=6.188788e+019 sd=1.021323e+016 ci(99%)=[6.186157e+019,6.191418e+019] n=501279644 sdn=2.286669e+020 t=1810.45s
376) m=6.188848e+019 sd=1.000131e+016 ci(99%)=[6.186272e+019,6.191425e+019] n=501279536 sdn=2.239220e+020 t=1815.75s
377) m=6.188625e+019 sd=1.049028e+016 ci(99%)=[6.185923e+019,6.191327e+019] n=501280015 sdn=2.348698e+020 t=1809.28s
378) m=6.188681e+019 sd=1.126207e+016 ci(99%)=[6.185780e+019,6.191582e+019] n=501280377 sdn=2.521498e+020 t=1805.72s
379) m=6.187769e+019 sd=1.015868e+016 ci(99%)=[6.185152e+019,6.190386e+019] n=501280438 sdn=2.274456e+020 t=1812.66s
380) m=6.188703e+019 sd=1.021894e+016 ci(99%)=[6.186070e+019,6.191335e+019] n=501280185 sdn=2.287948e+020 t=1808.80s
381) m=6.188282e+019 sd=9.887869e+015 ci(99%)=[6.185735e+019,6.190829e+019] n=501280103 sdn=2.213823e+020 t=1813.31s
382) m=6.188363e+019 sd=1.055788e+016 ci(99%)=[6.185643e+019,6.191083e+019] n=501281333 sdn=2.363837e+020 t=1806.05s
383) m=6.189435e+019 sd=1.020903e+016 ci(99%)=[6.186805e+019,6.192065e+019] n=501277001 sdn=2.285722e+020 t=1807.41s
384) m=6.187464e+019 sd=1.055538e+016 ci(99%)=[6.184745e+019,6.190183e+019] n=501279924 sdn=2.363274e+020 t=1814.06s
385) m=6.188342e+019 sd=1.096265e+016 ci(99%)=[6.185518e+019,6.191166e+019] n=501279200 sdn=2.454456e+020 t=1779.03s
386) m=6.187623e+019 sd=1.065845e+016 ci(99%)=[6.184878e+019,6.190369e+019] n=501280562 sdn=2.386351e+020 t=1778.92s
387) m=6.187855e+019 sd=1.093253e+016 ci(99%)=[6.185039e+019,6.190672e+019] n=501278692 sdn=2.447713e+020 t=1778.67s |
Averaging the accumulated data with Excel:
| Code: |
Averages after N = 387 MonteCarlo perft samples:
<m> ~ 61,882,614,676,427,000,000
<sd> ~ 10,580,326,385,712,700
(Minimum value with 99% confidence) ~ <m> - (2.575829303)<sd> ~ 61,855,361,561,687,400,000
(Maximum value with 99% confidence) ~ <m> + (2.575829303)<sd> ~ 61,909,867,791,166,700,000
<m>/<sd> ~ 5,848.838
<n> ~ 501,279,614.67 |
<m> has grown a little; <sd>, <m>/<sd> and <n> are almost unchanged compared with the results of last week.
My experiment is not endless and I have fixed a goal: 400 MC perft samples. I stop the experiment due to Easter... once I resume it, I estimate another week for reach the 400 samples.
In this post I collected some estimates, and I will calculate the relative errors as if <m> (with N = 400) were the true Perft(14) value for the game of chess (which is not correct).
Regards from Spain.
Ajedrecista.
_________________
Six Fortran 95 tools.
Chess will never be solved. |
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
