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Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match results
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Adam Hair



Joined: 06 May 2009
Posts: 1657
Location: Fuquay-Varina, North Carolina
PostPost subject: Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu    Posted: Sun Mar 18, 2012 12:26 am Reply to topic Reply with quote
Houdini wrote:
Adam Hair wrote:
My actual source is a statistical textbook, but the Wikipedia entry for "prediction interval" also has the formula for computing the endpoints of the interval. For computing the variance, I used the approximation Error = 100%* Sqrt((score*(1-score)-0.25*draw%)/games).

You cannot use this variance for predicting a second engine match from a first match engine result, in that case you need to multiply it by 2.
See the "prediction interval" Wikepedia page you refer to, paragraph "Unknown mean, known variance".
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_interval

The variance for predicting a future "observation" is (1 + 1/n) larger than the known population variance, with n the number of previous observations.
In this case we only have a single previous "observation" (engine match), so n = 1 and the variance is twice as high as the population variance.
This leads to 1.4 times higher error bars than the formula you cite above, exactly like I said in my previous post.

Robert


You are correct. I screwed up by making n = 150, the number of games in Ingo's sample, instead of 1, the number of samples upon which the prediction was being made.

Thanks for setting me straight.
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Subject Author Date/Time
Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match results Brent M Fri Mar 16, 2012 2:50 pm
      Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Robert Houdart Fri Mar 16, 2012 3:15 pm
            Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Brent M Fri Mar 16, 2012 3:23 pm
                  Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Robert Houdart Fri Mar 16, 2012 4:08 pm
                        Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Adam Hair Sat Mar 17, 2012 1:02 pm
                              Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Robert Houdart Sat Mar 17, 2012 2:27 pm
                                    Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Marijan Stipancic jr Sat Mar 17, 2012 3:37 pm
                                          Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Robert Houdart Sun Mar 18, 2012 1:49 am
                                                Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Marijan Stipancic jr Sun Mar 18, 2012 2:19 am
                                                Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Bram Mourik Sun Mar 18, 2012 11:03 am
                                                      Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Robert Houdart Sun Mar 18, 2012 12:38 pm
                                    Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Adam Hair Sat Mar 17, 2012 4:25 pm
                                          Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Robert Houdart Sat Mar 17, 2012 7:32 pm
                                                Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Adam Hair Sat Mar 17, 2012 9:43 pm
                                                      Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Robert Houdart Sat Mar 17, 2012 10:43 pm
                                                            Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Adam Hair Sun Mar 18, 2012 12:26 am
                        Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Brent M Mon Mar 19, 2012 12:33 am
                              Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Robert Houdart Mon Mar 19, 2012 11:38 am
                                    Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Brent M Mon Mar 19, 2012 12:24 pm
                                          Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Richard Vida Mon Mar 19, 2012 12:57 pm
                                                Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Brent M Mon Mar 19, 2012 1:03 pm
                                                Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu pal larkin Wed Mar 21, 2012 3:07 am
            Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Richard Allbert Sun Mar 18, 2012 1:25 pm
                  Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Robert Houdart Sun Mar 18, 2012 2:03 pm
                        Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Richard Allbert Sun Mar 18, 2012 3:35 pm
                  Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Dr.Wael Deeb Sun Mar 18, 2012 5:59 pm
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