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Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match results
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Adam Hair



Joined: 06 May 2009
Posts: 1638
Location: Fuquay-Varina, North Carolina
PostPost subject: Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu    Posted: Sat Mar 17, 2012 4:25 pm Reply to topic Reply with quote
Houdini wrote:
Adam Hair wrote:
So, using the results from Ingo's match between Critter 1.4a and Houdini 2.0c, we could compute a prediction interval. From Ingo's data, 52.67% +/- 7.04% or (45.63, 59.71) is a 95% prediction interval for the score of Brent's match. In fact, one might predict that there was approximately 98% chance that the score for Houdini would be less than 60% (based on Ingo's results).

Adam, that's incorrect. The confidence interval (+- 7%) is only valid with respect to the expected "true" value, not with respect to another random sample.

If you want to use Ingo's random sample to predict Brent's random sample, you have to multiply the uncertainty margin by 1.4: the confidence interval becomes 53% +- 10%. In other words, from Ingo's result you can deduce that another similar match will produce with 95% certainty a result between 43% and 63%. Brent's result lies comfortably within these boundaries.

A more straightforward way of looking at the results is as follows.
Ingo obtains 53 %, Brent obtains 60 %. Both results are perfectly compatible with the 55% +- 7% result predicted for a 100-game match and about 40 Elo established rating difference.

Robert


I am using the results of one random sample to predict (although after the fact) the results of another random sample. The computation of a prediction interval makes use of the sample mean, sample variance, and Student's T distribution, but not Sqrt(2).

If I were to compare Ingo's result to Brent's result, then Sqrt(2) would come into play.

As you noted, the two results are not at odds with each other. However, we probably would not have predicted Brent's results from looking solely at Ingo's results, which by the way are the most similar to Brent's conditions.

Adam
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Subject Author Date/Time
Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match results Brent M Fri Mar 16, 2012 2:50 pm
      Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Robert Houdart Fri Mar 16, 2012 3:15 pm
            Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Brent M Fri Mar 16, 2012 3:23 pm
                  Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Robert Houdart Fri Mar 16, 2012 4:08 pm
                        Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Adam Hair Sat Mar 17, 2012 1:02 pm
                              Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Robert Houdart Sat Mar 17, 2012 2:27 pm
                                    Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Marijan Stipancic jr Sat Mar 17, 2012 3:37 pm
                                          Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Robert Houdart Sun Mar 18, 2012 1:49 am
                                                Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Marijan Stipancic jr Sun Mar 18, 2012 2:19 am
                                                Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Bram Mourik Sun Mar 18, 2012 11:03 am
                                                      Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Robert Houdart Sun Mar 18, 2012 12:38 pm
                                    Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Adam Hair Sat Mar 17, 2012 4:25 pm
                                          Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Robert Houdart Sat Mar 17, 2012 7:32 pm
                                                Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Adam Hair Sat Mar 17, 2012 9:43 pm
                                                      Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Robert Houdart Sat Mar 17, 2012 10:43 pm
                                                            Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Adam Hair Sun Mar 18, 2012 12:26 am
                        Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Brent M Mon Mar 19, 2012 12:33 am
                              Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Robert Houdart Mon Mar 19, 2012 11:38 am
                                    Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Brent M Mon Mar 19, 2012 12:24 pm
                                          Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Richard Vida Mon Mar 19, 2012 12:57 pm
                                                Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Brent M Mon Mar 19, 2012 1:03 pm
                                                Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu pal larkin Wed Mar 21, 2012 3:07 am
            Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Richard Allbert Sun Mar 18, 2012 1:25 pm
                  Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Robert Houdart Sun Mar 18, 2012 2:03 pm
                        Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Richard Allbert Sun Mar 18, 2012 3:35 pm
                  Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Dr.Wael Deeb Sun Mar 18, 2012 5:59 pm
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