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Edmund Moshammer

Joined: 03 Dec 2007
Posts: 598
Location: St. Gallen, Switzerland

Post subject: Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom)    Posted: Sun Mar 04, 2012 4:13 pm

 hgm wrote: It is interesting that the Gaussian seems to give a better fit, despite the fact that the ratings were derived using the logistic. (Now hope the logistic doesn't give a better fit on ratings derived with the Gaussian...) It could be that for this large data set based mostly on low delta-Elo data the obtained ratings are not very sensitive to the model used. What worries me is that the empirical data seems steeper than the curve of the model from which they were derived. That means that Elo differences you have to put into the logistic formula to get the true score percentage are larger than those spit out by BayesElo. In other words, BayesElo systematically underestimates rating differences, compressing the rating scale. I wonder if this is an artifact caused by the prior. Do you calculate the ratings for this data set yourself? If so, could you recalculate them using a smaller prior (e.g. 0.1 in stead of the standard 2.0)?

I cannot easily recalculate the Elos; I have taken the data from CCRL.

Taking into account the elo-delta of the players my model predicts the game outcome on average 0.15 percent-points better.

 Code: Elo(x) = 1 / (1 + 10^(x/400))  Elo^-1(x) = 400 *LOG10(x / (1-x)) P_draw_given_elodelta = Elo(-delta-whiteadvantage) * (1 - Elo(-delta-whiteadvantage)) * 40/25 Elo_draw = Elo^-1(P_draw_given_elodelta) + 0.096 * eloavg + 75
 Display posts from previous: All Posts1 Day7 Days2 Weeks1 Month3 Months6 Months1 Year Oldest FirstNewest First
Subject Author Date/Time
Edmund Moshammer Sat Mar 03, 2012 11:22 pm
H.G.Muller Sun Mar 04, 2012 6:56 am
Edmund Moshammer Sun Mar 04, 2012 8:49 am
H.G.Muller Sun Mar 04, 2012 10:44 am
Lucas Braesch Sun Mar 04, 2012 11:06 am
H.G.Muller Sun Mar 04, 2012 11:29 am
Edmund Moshammer Sun Mar 04, 2012 2:42 pm
Edmund Moshammer Sun Mar 04, 2012 2:52 pm
H.G.Muller Sun Mar 04, 2012 3:26 pm
Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) Edmund Moshammer Sun Mar 04, 2012 4:13 pm
H.G.Muller Sun Mar 04, 2012 4:33 pm
Edmund Moshammer Sun Mar 04, 2012 5:18 pm
Adam Hair Sat Jun 30, 2012 11:00 pm
Adam Hair Mon Jul 02, 2012 1:25 pm
Adam Hair Sun Jul 01, 2012 3:48 am
Adam Hair Sun Jul 01, 2012 8:47 pm
Edmund Moshammer Sun Jul 01, 2012 9:55 pm
Adam Hair Mon Jul 02, 2012 12:37 am
Adam Hair Mon Jul 02, 2012 1:27 pm
Marco Costalba Sun Jul 01, 2012 7:17 am
Lucas Braesch Sun Mar 04, 2012 8:53 am
Daniel Shawul Sun Mar 04, 2012 12:01 pm
Rémi Coulom Sun Mar 04, 2012 1:29 pm
H.G.Muller Sun Mar 04, 2012 2:20 pm
Rémi Coulom Sun Mar 04, 2012 3:52 pm
H.G.Muller Sun Mar 04, 2012 4:12 pm
Rémi Coulom Sun Mar 04, 2012 5:13 pm
H.G.Muller Sun Mar 04, 2012 5:27 pm
Rémi Coulom Sun Mar 04, 2012 5:32 pm
Daniel Shawul Wed Sep 12, 2012 12:18 am

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