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Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom)
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Edmund Moshammer



Joined: 03 Dec 2007
Posts: 598
Location: St. Gallen, Switzerland
PostPost subject: Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom)    Posted: Sun Mar 04, 2012 2:42 pm Reply to topic Reply with quote
Thanks to hgm and lucas for the suggestions.

Below you find updated graphs representing the same data.
1) bin-size is 4 elo-points
2) minimum bin-size is 4 samples
3) in the elo-delta graph I shifted all models by 20 elo points to compensate for the white to move advantage
4) I added the cdf of the normal distribution with sd=250
5) I added the function hgm suggested to estimate draws scaling by 40/25



Agreed, the gauss function is a better fit than either the linear function or the logistic function.
Looking at the new graphs I am not so sure about hgms suggestion regarding the progression of the avg-elo score function. You are right that the next step is to take elo-delta into the equation.
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Subject Author Date/Time
Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) Edmund Moshammer Sat Mar 03, 2012 11:22 pm
      Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) H.G.Muller Sun Mar 04, 2012 6:56 am
            Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) Edmund Moshammer Sun Mar 04, 2012 8:49 am
                  Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) H.G.Muller Sun Mar 04, 2012 10:44 am
                        Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) Lucas Braesch Sun Mar 04, 2012 11:06 am
                              Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) H.G.Muller Sun Mar 04, 2012 11:29 am
                        Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) Edmund Moshammer Sun Mar 04, 2012 2:42 pm
                              Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) Edmund Moshammer Sun Mar 04, 2012 2:52 pm
                              Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) H.G.Muller Sun Mar 04, 2012 3:26 pm
                                    Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) Edmund Moshammer Sun Mar 04, 2012 4:13 pm
                                          Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) H.G.Muller Sun Mar 04, 2012 4:33 pm
                                                Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) Edmund Moshammer Sun Mar 04, 2012 5:18 pm
                                    Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) Adam Hair Sat Jun 30, 2012 11:00 pm
                                          Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) Adam Hair Mon Jul 02, 2012 1:25 pm
                              Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) Adam Hair Sun Jul 01, 2012 3:48 am
                                    Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) Adam Hair Sun Jul 01, 2012 8:47 pm
                                          Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) Edmund Moshammer Sun Jul 01, 2012 9:55 pm
                                                Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) Adam Hair Mon Jul 02, 2012 12:37 am
                                                      Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) Adam Hair Mon Jul 02, 2012 1:27 pm
                        Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) Marco Costalba Sun Jul 01, 2012 7:17 am
      Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) Lucas Braesch Sun Mar 04, 2012 8:53 am
      Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) Daniel Shawul Sun Mar 04, 2012 12:01 pm
      Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) Rémi Coulom Sun Mar 04, 2012 1:29 pm
            Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) H.G.Muller Sun Mar 04, 2012 2:20 pm
                  Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) Rémi Coulom Sun Mar 04, 2012 3:52 pm
                        Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) H.G.Muller Sun Mar 04, 2012 4:12 pm
                              Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) Rémi Coulom Sun Mar 04, 2012 5:13 pm
                                    Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) H.G.Muller Sun Mar 04, 2012 5:27 pm
                                          Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) Rémi Coulom Sun Mar 04, 2012 5:32 pm
      Re: Advantage for White; Bayeselo (to Rémi Coulom) Daniel Shawul Wed Sep 12, 2012 12:18 am
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