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Number 1 engine on long time controls
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Don Dailey



Joined: 29 Apr 2008
Posts: 4321
PostPost subject: Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls    Posted: Tue Feb 28, 2012 9:06 pm Reply to topic Reply with quote
IGarcia wrote:
Don wrote:
IGarcia wrote:
Don wrote:
I never tried to predict that it would be 35 ELO stronger nor did I even say at which level it would pass Houdini.


I asked to you several posts ago. Witch level you think Komodo will pass Houdini acording to your data? You never reply.

Its fair to ask because you are suggesting at some point komodo will pass. Will be interesting to hear the predictions from you.

respectfully, Ignacio.




I'm still trying to understand the data I am seeing so it would premature to make predictions. I don't remember you asking but if I did see it I probably was not prepared to give you an answer.

in the 40/120 CEGT rating list Komodo is showing as 1 ELO stronger than Houdini 1.5 based on 400 Komodo games and 600 Houdini games. These are time adjusted for older hardware so it's not really 40/120, it's something faster. The error margin there is something like 20 ELO which is somewhat similar to what Milos reports.

If you want to pin me down to a figure I cannot give you one, but I would say that at 40/120 on modern hardware we are within 10 ELO in either direction. The latest development version of Komodo will be about 20 more than that.

http://www.husvankempen.de/nunn//40120new/40_120_ratinglist/40_120_AllVersion/rangliste.html


I asked several post ago. question was:
Still, maybe you are right. Can you tell us witch time control komodo will overtake?

And I don't want to pin you. I'm just curious to see the answer of so many predictions. So much efforts to estimate a hypothetical overtake ... ok, we are adults, everyone can decide what to do with his time.



Don't worry about not wanting to pin me down - since I don't know the answer I won't give you one and that can be something you can worry about. For us it's not very interesting anyway since we don't plan to stop improving Komodo and we think everyone else will continue to improve their programs and Houdart will continue to improve Ivanhoe and so on.

I have to keep repeating this, but I did not do this study to figure out when we would overtake Houdini, I did it to study scaling issues. It only became interesting at all when the 40/120 rating list indicated that Komodo 4 may have already caught up at long time controls. I'm also interesting in knowing if Robert has improved Ivanhoe enough to change it's scaling characteristics.

I have done this same type of study between Komodo versions and versions of other programs too and it's something Larry and I have been well aware of for a very long time.

What I'm finding surprising is that almost nobody else knows about scaling issues and their importance - they seem almost oblivious to the concept.


Quote:


Jesus, nice work, but is just suppositions. You imagine komodo will keep preforming in some way (not lineal as proposed before) and then this and that... then you conlusion, (no offense please) is imaginary.



To help you understand this, there are some good web sites that explain interpolation and curve fitting and such. It's a valid scientific concept and in fact we couldn't do much of anything without it. I don't want to go into too much detail here but I'll give you a simple example. If you throw a ball high in the air at a given angle, you can predict almost exactly where it will land if you know the wind speed, gravity, speed and other factors. If someone said, "how do you know it will land on the ground since that hasn't happened yet?" you would probably think them to be a fool because every human has some built in ability to interpolate. We also know that chess program get better when you give them more time or CPU power to think. We don't just know that it will happen we can predict HOW MUCH stronger it will be with a fairly high degree of accuracy.

This is the same concept. You can see the trend and what has been done here with Jesus, myself and others is perfectly valid. You call it "supposition" but that's probably not the best word even though it's partly supposition. We know almost exactly where there earth will be in 500 years and what days there will be a full moon and that is supposition too, it's based on predicting things that have not happened yet.

By the way, I did not see Jesus make any sort of claims about anything - I think your words were way too strong. All he was doing was some curve fitting to predict the next data point, which is a perfectly valid scientific concept. You can read about these same kind of things on the web, a starting point is the Wikipedia on interpolation but there are probably better ones. It's a cool thing.



Quote:


regards

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Subject Author Date/Time
Number 1 engine on long time controls Teodoriu Catalin Fri Feb 24, 2012 7:17 pm
      Re: NUMBER 1 ENGINE ON LONG TIME CONTROLS Uri Blass Fri Feb 24, 2012 7:52 pm
            Re: NUMBER 1 ENGINE ON LONG TIME CONTROLS Teodoriu Catalin Sat Feb 25, 2012 8:02 am
      Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Don Dailey Fri Feb 24, 2012 10:01 pm
            Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Lonnie Cook Fri Feb 24, 2012 10:21 pm
                  Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Don Dailey Fri Feb 24, 2012 11:16 pm
                        Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Robert Houdart Fri Feb 24, 2012 11:40 pm
                              Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Don Dailey Fri Feb 24, 2012 11:51 pm
                                    Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Robert Houdart Sat Feb 25, 2012 12:13 am
                                          Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Ignacio Garcia Sat Feb 25, 2012 12:29 am
                                          Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Don Dailey Sat Feb 25, 2012 12:30 am
                                                Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Tom Giampietro Sat Feb 25, 2012 1:05 am
                                                      Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Don Dailey Sat Feb 25, 2012 1:40 am
                                                            Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Robert Houdart Sat Feb 25, 2012 1:52 am
                                                                  Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Peter Skinner Sat Feb 25, 2012 5:54 am
                                                            Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Carl Bicknell Sat Feb 25, 2012 8:57 am
                                                                  Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Ben-Hur Carlos Langoni Sat Feb 25, 2012 10:22 pm
                                                                        Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Carl Bicknell Sun Feb 26, 2012 8:00 am
                                                                              Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Ben-Hur Carlos Langoni Sun Feb 26, 2012 1:04 pm
                                                      Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls George Speight Sat Feb 25, 2012 9:37 am
                                                Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Uri Blass Sun Feb 26, 2012 10:43 am
                                                      Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Sedat Canbaz Sun Feb 26, 2012 11:54 am
                                                            Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Ben-Hur Carlos Langoni Sun Feb 26, 2012 1:17 pm
                                                                  Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Sedat Canbaz Sun Feb 26, 2012 2:05 pm
                                                                        Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Sedat Canbaz Sun Feb 26, 2012 2:57 pm
                                                      Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Don Dailey Sun Feb 26, 2012 1:57 pm
                                                            Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Uri Blass Sun Feb 26, 2012 2:33 pm
                                                            Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Ignacio Garcia Sun Feb 26, 2012 3:41 pm
                                                                  Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Don Dailey Sun Feb 26, 2012 4:51 pm
                                                                        Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Ignacio Garcia Sun Feb 26, 2012 5:34 pm
                                                                              Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Ricardo Barreira Sun Feb 26, 2012 7:54 pm
                                                                        Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Uri Blass Sun Feb 26, 2012 10:53 pm
                                                                              Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Don Dailey Mon Feb 27, 2012 1:35 pm
                                                                                    Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Jouni Uski Mon Feb 27, 2012 4:18 pm
                                                                                          Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Robert Houdart Mon Feb 27, 2012 6:26 pm
                                                                                          Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Don Dailey Mon Feb 27, 2012 6:50 pm
                                                                                          Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Larry Kaufman Mon Feb 27, 2012 6:56 pm
                                                                                    Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Milos Stanisavljevic Mon Feb 27, 2012 5:04 pm
                                                                                          Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Milos Stanisavljevic Mon Feb 27, 2012 5:22 pm
                                                                                          Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Larry Kaufman Mon Feb 27, 2012 6:31 pm
                                                                                          Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Don Dailey Mon Feb 27, 2012 6:48 pm
                                                                              Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Milos Stanisavljevic Mon Feb 27, 2012 4:52 pm
                                                                                    Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Larry Kaufman Mon Feb 27, 2012 5:11 pm
                                                                                          Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Milos Stanisavljevic Mon Feb 27, 2012 5:19 pm
                                                                                    Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Don Dailey Mon Feb 27, 2012 5:35 pm
                                                                                          Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Ignacio Garcia Mon Feb 27, 2012 5:58 pm
                                                                                          Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Don Dailey Mon Feb 27, 2012 6:38 pm
                                                                                          Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Ignacio Garcia Tue Feb 28, 2012 2:40 pm
                                                                                          Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls. Jesús Muñoz Tue Feb 28, 2012 3:06 pm
                                                                                          Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Don Dailey Tue Feb 28, 2012 9:06 pm
                                                                                          Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Ignacio Garcia Wed Feb 29, 2012 11:22 am
                                                                                    Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls. Jesús Muñoz Mon Feb 27, 2012 6:50 pm
                                                                                          Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls. Don Dailey Tue Feb 28, 2012 12:30 am
                                                                                          Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls. Jesús Muñoz Tue Feb 28, 2012 11:31 am
                                                                                          Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls. Don Dailey Tue Feb 28, 2012 11:57 am
                                                                                          Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls. Don Dailey Tue Feb 28, 2012 12:06 pm
                                                                                          Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls. Jouni Uski Tue Feb 28, 2012 2:10 pm
                                                                                          Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls. Don Dailey Tue Feb 28, 2012 8:31 pm
                                                                                          Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls. Bigler Tue Feb 28, 2012 4:52 pm
                                                                                          Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls. Larry Kaufman Tue Feb 28, 2012 4:58 pm
                                                                                          Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls. Bigler Tue Feb 28, 2012 5:03 pm
                                                                                          Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls. Larry Kaufman Tue Feb 28, 2012 5:46 pm
                                                                                          Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls. Terry McCracken Wed Feb 29, 2012 5:37 am
                                                                                          Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls. Carl Bicknell Wed Feb 29, 2012 9:19 am
                                                                                          Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls. Terry McCracken Wed Feb 29, 2012 5:49 pm
                                                                                          Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls. Dr.Wael Deeb Wed Feb 29, 2012 5:59 pm
                                                                                          Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls. Terry McCracken Thu Mar 01, 2012 4:52 am
                                                                                          Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls. Uri Blass Tue Feb 28, 2012 6:05 pm
                        Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Bram Mourik Tue Feb 28, 2012 9:01 pm
                              Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Don Dailey Tue Feb 28, 2012 9:30 pm
                                    Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Dr.Wael Deeb Tue Feb 28, 2012 9:37 pm
                                    Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Bram Mourik Wed Feb 29, 2012 5:58 pm
                                          Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Don Dailey Wed Feb 29, 2012 6:25 pm
                                                Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls om prakash Thu Mar 01, 2012 7:00 am
                                          Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls enrico fagiuoli Wed Feb 29, 2012 8:43 pm
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                              Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Don Dailey Wed Feb 29, 2012 12:47 pm
                        Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Vincent Diepeveen Thu Mar 01, 2012 11:44 am
                              Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Uri Blass Thu Mar 01, 2012 1:30 pm
                              Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Don Dailey Thu Mar 01, 2012 1:34 pm
                                    Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls enrico fagiuoli Thu Mar 01, 2012 2:57 pm
                                          Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Don Dailey Thu Mar 01, 2012 9:48 pm
                                                Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls enrico fagiuoli Fri Mar 02, 2012 11:09 am
                                                Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Vincent Diepeveen Fri Mar 02, 2012 12:20 pm
                                                      Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Don Dailey Fri Mar 02, 2012 12:26 pm
                                                            Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Vincent Diepeveen Fri Mar 02, 2012 12:51 pm
                                                                  Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Dr.Wael Deeb Fri Mar 02, 2012 12:55 pm
                                                                        Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Don Dailey Fri Mar 02, 2012 1:49 pm
                                                                              Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Dr.Wael Deeb Fri Mar 02, 2012 3:10 pm
                                                                                    Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Don Dailey Fri Mar 02, 2012 3:30 pm
                                                                                          Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Dr.Wael Deeb Fri Mar 02, 2012 3:43 pm
                                                                                          Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Uri Blass Fri Mar 02, 2012 8:14 pm
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                                                                                          Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Uri Blass Fri Mar 02, 2012 8:45 pm
                                                                                          Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Larry Kaufman Fri Mar 02, 2012 8:58 pm
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                                                                                          Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Dr.Wael Deeb Fri Mar 02, 2012 9:23 pm
                                                                                          Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Carl Bicknell Fri Mar 02, 2012 5:41 pm
                                                                                          Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Larry Kaufman Fri Mar 02, 2012 6:59 pm
                                                                                          Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Dr.Wael Deeb Fri Mar 02, 2012 7:10 pm
                                                                                          Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Carl Bicknell Sat Mar 03, 2012 3:49 pm
                                                                                          Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Dr.Wael Deeb Sun Mar 04, 2012 8:36 am
                                                                  Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Robert Flesher Fri Mar 02, 2012 9:28 pm
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                        Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Andrew R. Case Sat Feb 25, 2012 9:14 pm
      Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Gabor Szots Thu Mar 01, 2012 2:19 pm
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                  Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls om prakash Thu Mar 01, 2012 4:16 pm
                        Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Larry Kaufman Thu Mar 01, 2012 4:51 pm
                              Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls om prakash Thu Mar 01, 2012 4:54 pm
                  Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls George Speight Sun Mar 04, 2012 9:42 am
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            Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls Don Dailey Fri Mar 02, 2012 1:34 pm
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