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POLL:Man vs Machine ?
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Don Dailey



Joined: 29 Apr 2008
Posts: 4319
PostPost subject: Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ?    Posted: Tue Feb 21, 2012 5:15 pm Reply to topic Reply with quote
MM wrote:

Hi Don, your idea is interesting but i don't think it can work.

As u say, we are getting the point where we don't have rielable data on how strong computers are compared to human.

Whatever result could happen with your method, anybody could say'' but there was no 2800...Carlsen plays differently....handicap is in favour of the machine ...and many other complaints.



Science is all about making interpolations like this. People will complain that the test should have been like this or like that, but there is NO WAY to perfectly construct a test and most of their concerns are personal superstitions, not based on sound thinking.

You believe that there is something special and different about Carlsen that somehow invalidates any test with weaker players, but he does not play any differently from anyone else, he is just stronger. A 1900 is stronger than a 1700 player too, but there is nothing special that separates them other than ELO. The 1900 player is not made out of special stuff. There is really only ONE thing special about Carlsen, and that is that he is the strongest player in the world. That makes him special only because we attach a degree of significance to it. In fact I believe that Carlsen pretty much sucks. I am a big fan and he is my current favorite player and I admire him for being so strong so young, but he sucks! I am sure that he plays hundreds of ELO below optimal and there is nothing special about that. No only that but computers suck too and Carlsen is almost certainly at least 200 ELO below the best computer programs. So he cannot beat players that suck!

I say of this to illustrate that there nothing special that separates the top players from everyone else other than what separates YOU from players a few hundred ELO weaker.

So I think my test is perfect valid. If you get players within 400 ELO of the top players in strength and get a large enough sample of games at time odds you can get a very good estimate of how much stronger computer programs are. We can do that pretty easily because we know their ELO and we know how much the ELO increases with programs when time is added. It won't be perfect but it will much better than what we have now.

Quote:


At the time of the match Rybka 3 - Milov (2700), people were generally convinced that, even with Rybka Handicapped, Milov would have been crushed bad.
As you know Milov won that match (handicap match) and nothing changed.

There's a party pro-computer (very large) and a party pro-human (very little).

The error of Rybka team has been, in my point of view, to make an handicap match.

Wanna do a match? Ok, lets fight but no handicap.

I think Milov would have agreed.

Like Fern used to say...only my thoughts...

Best Regards
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Subject Author Date/Time
POLL:Man vs Machine ? Sedat Canbaz Mon Feb 20, 2012 11:19 am
      Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Maurizio Maglio Mon Feb 20, 2012 12:22 pm
      Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Don Dailey Mon Feb 20, 2012 5:25 pm
            Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Maurizio Maglio Mon Feb 20, 2012 6:10 pm
                  Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Sedat Canbaz Mon Feb 20, 2012 6:27 pm
                        Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Don Dailey Mon Feb 20, 2012 6:35 pm
                              Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Sedat Canbaz Mon Feb 20, 2012 6:45 pm
                        Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Maurizio Maglio Mon Feb 20, 2012 6:49 pm
                              Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Sedat Canbaz Mon Feb 20, 2012 8:03 pm
                                    Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Maurizio Maglio Mon Feb 20, 2012 8:27 pm
                        Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Mel Cooper Mon Feb 20, 2012 7:04 pm
                              Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Maurizio Maglio Mon Feb 20, 2012 7:15 pm
                                    Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Mel Cooper Mon Feb 20, 2012 7:23 pm
                                          Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Maurizio Maglio Mon Feb 20, 2012 7:53 pm
      Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Michael Golub Mon Feb 20, 2012 10:21 pm
            Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Sedat Canbaz Mon Feb 20, 2012 10:45 pm
                  Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Maurizio Maglio Tue Feb 21, 2012 9:50 am
                        Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Sedat Canbaz Tue Feb 21, 2012 11:35 am
                              Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Thomas Mayer Tue Feb 21, 2012 11:41 am
                              Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Thomas Mayer Tue Feb 21, 2012 11:47 am
                                    Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Sedat Canbaz Tue Feb 21, 2012 1:30 pm
                              Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Maurizio Maglio Tue Feb 21, 2012 2:18 pm
                        Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Don Dailey Tue Feb 21, 2012 1:08 pm
                              Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Carl Bicknell Tue Feb 21, 2012 1:15 pm
                                    Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Don Dailey Tue Feb 21, 2012 2:09 pm
                                          Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Carl Bicknell Tue Feb 21, 2012 2:35 pm
                                                Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Uri Blass Thu Feb 23, 2012 10:02 am
                              Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Sedat Canbaz Tue Feb 21, 2012 2:38 pm
                                    Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Maurizio Maglio Tue Feb 21, 2012 3:10 pm
                                          Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Sedat Canbaz Tue Feb 21, 2012 3:43 pm
                                                Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Maurizio Maglio Tue Feb 21, 2012 4:19 pm
                                                      Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Sedat Canbaz Tue Feb 21, 2012 5:14 pm
                                    Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Don Dailey Tue Feb 21, 2012 3:17 pm
                                          Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Maurizio Maglio Tue Feb 21, 2012 3:58 pm
                                                Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Don Dailey Tue Feb 21, 2012 5:15 pm
                                                      Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Maurizio Maglio Tue Feb 21, 2012 5:42 pm
                                                            Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Don Dailey Tue Feb 21, 2012 6:11 pm
                                                                  Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Maurizio Maglio Tue Feb 21, 2012 6:27 pm
                                                                        Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Jean ahlbeck Wed Feb 22, 2012 2:20 am
                                                                              Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Sedat Canbaz Thu Feb 23, 2012 7:15 am
                                                                                    Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Uri Blass Thu Feb 23, 2012 10:08 am
                                                                                          Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Sedat Canbaz Thu Feb 23, 2012 11:44 am
                                                                              Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Sedat Canbaz Thu Feb 23, 2012 7:16 am
                                                                                    Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Sedat Canbaz Thu Feb 23, 2012 8:16 am
                                                                                          Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Jean ahlbeck Thu Feb 23, 2012 10:14 am
                                                                                          Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Sedat Canbaz Thu Feb 23, 2012 11:37 am
                                                                                          Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Jean ahlbeck Thu Feb 23, 2012 4:01 pm
                                                                                          Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Sedat Canbaz Thu Feb 23, 2012 7:32 pm
                                                                                          Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Dr.Wael Deeb Thu Feb 23, 2012 8:06 pm
                                                                                          Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Jean ahlbeck Fri Feb 24, 2012 1:28 am
                                                                                          Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Jean ahlbeck Fri Feb 24, 2012 1:52 am
                                                                                          Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Sedat Canbaz Fri Feb 24, 2012 11:20 am
                                                                                          Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Sedat Canbaz Wed Feb 29, 2012 11:19 pm
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