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POLL:Man vs Machine ?
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Maurizio Maglio



Joined: 16 Oct 2011
Posts: 766
PostPost subject: Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ?    Posted: Mon Feb 20, 2012 6:49 pm Reply to topic Reply with quote
Sedat Canbaz wrote:
Just i'd like to mention again and to make it more clear...

When i said, if we run the top engines on 'latest fast machines' i was not meaning about 1 core engines or quads or dual processors or 10 years old processors
Or i was not meaning that we will use the same engines which are played 10-15 yeas ago...
Or i was not meaning too what will be the Elo engine performance using own books...
Or i was not meaning also about Rybka Cluter's performance vs GMs

I mean especially for top engine performance on latest fastest i7 6 core or i7 12 core high-overclocked machines
Plus,in case of top mp engines are using superior private strong book

Actually it's not so hard to estimate about what will be the Elo points between Human vs Engines

And i can give you another example about the current issue

I think the bellow engines are around on the same level as Top GM of 2700-2800 Elo human points,right ?:
Chess Tiger 2007,Fritz in Bahrain,Rebel...

So...in other words,if we will start to test Chess Tiger 2007 engine against Rybka,Houdini,Critter
(i mean if we run the Top MP engines on latest i7 6 core or 12 core machines via Auto232 mode or via online)

And after a such test at 40/120,can we expect the Elo difference to be less than 500 Elo ?
For example,engine match between Houdini 2.0c x64 6 core against Chess Tiger 2007 w32 1c

Lets take as example SSDF rating,which is very useful for a such comparison:
http://ssdf.bosjo.net/list.htm

Code:
Deep Rybka 4 x64 2GB Q6600 2,4 GHz   3216  32  -29  642  78%  3001
Chess Tiger 2007 256MB Athlon 1200 MHz   2786  22  -23  966  39%  2862


Note:the current SSDF Elo difference is 430 Elo,what will be the Rybka's Elo difference on 3 times faster machine ??

For example, if Rybka,Houdini Critter will be played on decent fast hardwares,e.g on i7 990X @ 4.60GHz
Note that in case of running MP engines, i7 990X @4.60 GHz is approx.3 times faster than Q6600 2.40GHz

That means you will get extra approx.130-150 Elo points

In other words,i expect the SSDF Rating to be:
Code:
1.Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 6 core i7 990X @4.60 GHz 3400 Elo
2.Deep Rybka 4.1 x64 6 core i7 990X @4.60 GHz   3350 Elo
3.Critter 1.4 x64 6 core i7 990X @4.60 GHz      3350 Elo
4.Chess Tiger 2007 256MB Athlon 1200 MHz   2786 Elo

Btw,SCCT Auto232's rating has almost same Elo points

I really wonder too,in case of participating the Top Human GM in SSDF Rating (e.g Kasparov,Kramnik,Carlsen,Topalov,Anand... )
Probably then, i expect the Top Human Players would be rated around 2700-2850 SSDF Elo points !

More than 10 years ago,we noticed that even the top single processor engines are started to play on GM levels,here is another proof:


Note:the above red comparison table (which is based on around 2000 years) is quite good indicator
It show us that 2000 years engines are started to play with same level as Top GM of 2700-2800 Elo human points

More details::
-Now we are in 2012 that means the current top engines play much stronger than 2000 years engines
-Many of the Top Engines have been improved to play stronger approx.200-300 Elo points (in that period of time)
-Plus 10 yeas ago,the processors were much slower... .e.g in those years,Fritz Benchmark kns values were around 500-1000 kns
-But nowadays, (on latest fast i7 machines) Fritz Benchmark tool generates around 20.000 kns values

In my estimation,the engines which are rated about 2700-2850 Elo points (based on SSDF,CCRL,SCCT... ratings) are expected to be rated almost same level as Top GMs

Just i'd like to mention again that 10-12 years ago, the top engines elo performance were around 2650-2750 Elo points

But nowadays,i mean exactly the same engine versions are improved to play stronger at least 200-300 Elo points

In 10 (ten) years period of time,the processors are become at least 15-20 times more faster
That means the top mp engines can gain extra at least 350-400 Elo points

Just imagine in 2012...what will be Elo difference between Top MP Engines vs GMs

Actually our comments are just estimations...

The best answer:its will be great,if there will be a serious mach (played with many games) -Man vs Machine 2012

Personally i guess,the Top MP Engines will be performed more than 500 Elo

We should not forget to mention the opening book's factor (not only the hardware speed or engine strength can effect the engine's performance)

From my experience i can say that the opening book is the key,which is playing a very important role to reach high elo engine performance
Depending on what kind of opening book usage,the engines can be performed approx. 0-200 elo points or even more...

And last,remember also that even some 2200-2300 Elo chess engines can play draws vs the Top GMs of 2700-2800 Elo

Hope this helps...

Greetings,
Sedat


Hello Sedat,

i understand your point of view and respect totally your opinion but i see the things differently.

If i understood well, you match the strenght of the engines of the past with the actual engines and calculate the elo difference (and calculate the plus elo due to the hardware)

Basically, having that, you calculate the plus strenght of the engine against humans.

From my point of view it is not correct.

For example: if you set a match between Carlsen and a 1400 elo engine and a 1800 elo engine, probably Carlsen will score identically.

But there is 400 elo difference between the 2 engines.

I mean that the elo of the engines, in my opinion, is valid only for engines and cannot be compared to the elo of Humans for a simple reason:

with the exception of very rare events, humans and machines have a own life and never play the same tournaments.

If there was a circuit in which humans and software would play constantly together and we should have a huge difference in performance in favour of the machine i would agree with you.

But it's not the actual situation.

Basically i think that untill humans and machines will play together regularely in the tournaments, it is impossible to compare the strenght of the ones with the strenght of the others.

Thank you

Best Regards
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Display posts from previous:   
Subject Author Date/Time
POLL:Man vs Machine ? Sedat Canbaz Mon Feb 20, 2012 11:19 am
      Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Maurizio Maglio Mon Feb 20, 2012 12:22 pm
      Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Don Dailey Mon Feb 20, 2012 5:25 pm
            Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Maurizio Maglio Mon Feb 20, 2012 6:10 pm
                  Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Sedat Canbaz Mon Feb 20, 2012 6:27 pm
                        Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Don Dailey Mon Feb 20, 2012 6:35 pm
                              Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Sedat Canbaz Mon Feb 20, 2012 6:45 pm
                        Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Maurizio Maglio Mon Feb 20, 2012 6:49 pm
                              Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Sedat Canbaz Mon Feb 20, 2012 8:03 pm
                                    Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Maurizio Maglio Mon Feb 20, 2012 8:27 pm
                        Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Mel Cooper Mon Feb 20, 2012 7:04 pm
                              Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Maurizio Maglio Mon Feb 20, 2012 7:15 pm
                                    Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Mel Cooper Mon Feb 20, 2012 7:23 pm
                                          Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Maurizio Maglio Mon Feb 20, 2012 7:53 pm
      Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Michael Golub Mon Feb 20, 2012 10:21 pm
            Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Sedat Canbaz Mon Feb 20, 2012 10:45 pm
                  Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Maurizio Maglio Tue Feb 21, 2012 9:50 am
                        Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Sedat Canbaz Tue Feb 21, 2012 11:35 am
                              Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Thomas Mayer Tue Feb 21, 2012 11:41 am
                              Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Thomas Mayer Tue Feb 21, 2012 11:47 am
                                    Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Sedat Canbaz Tue Feb 21, 2012 1:30 pm
                              Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Maurizio Maglio Tue Feb 21, 2012 2:18 pm
                        Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Don Dailey Tue Feb 21, 2012 1:08 pm
                              Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Carl Bicknell Tue Feb 21, 2012 1:15 pm
                                    Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Don Dailey Tue Feb 21, 2012 2:09 pm
                                          Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Carl Bicknell Tue Feb 21, 2012 2:35 pm
                                                Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Uri Blass Thu Feb 23, 2012 10:02 am
                              Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Sedat Canbaz Tue Feb 21, 2012 2:38 pm
                                    Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Maurizio Maglio Tue Feb 21, 2012 3:10 pm
                                          Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Sedat Canbaz Tue Feb 21, 2012 3:43 pm
                                                Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Maurizio Maglio Tue Feb 21, 2012 4:19 pm
                                                      Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Sedat Canbaz Tue Feb 21, 2012 5:14 pm
                                    Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Don Dailey Tue Feb 21, 2012 3:17 pm
                                          Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Maurizio Maglio Tue Feb 21, 2012 3:58 pm
                                                Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Don Dailey Tue Feb 21, 2012 5:15 pm
                                                      Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Maurizio Maglio Tue Feb 21, 2012 5:42 pm
                                                            Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Don Dailey Tue Feb 21, 2012 6:11 pm
                                                                  Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Maurizio Maglio Tue Feb 21, 2012 6:27 pm
                                                                        Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Jean ahlbeck Wed Feb 22, 2012 2:20 am
                                                                              Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Sedat Canbaz Thu Feb 23, 2012 7:15 am
                                                                                    Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Uri Blass Thu Feb 23, 2012 10:08 am
                                                                                          Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Sedat Canbaz Thu Feb 23, 2012 11:44 am
                                                                              Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Sedat Canbaz Thu Feb 23, 2012 7:16 am
                                                                                    Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Sedat Canbaz Thu Feb 23, 2012 8:16 am
                                                                                          Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Jean ahlbeck Thu Feb 23, 2012 10:14 am
                                                                                          Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Sedat Canbaz Thu Feb 23, 2012 11:37 am
                                                                                          Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Jean ahlbeck Thu Feb 23, 2012 4:01 pm
                                                                                          Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Sedat Canbaz Thu Feb 23, 2012 7:32 pm
                                                                                          Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Dr.Wael Deeb Thu Feb 23, 2012 8:06 pm
                                                                                          Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Jean ahlbeck Fri Feb 24, 2012 1:28 am
                                                                                          Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Jean ahlbeck Fri Feb 24, 2012 1:52 am
                                                                                          Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Sedat Canbaz Fri Feb 24, 2012 11:20 am
                                                                                          Re: POLL:Man vs Machine ? Sedat Canbaz Wed Feb 29, 2012 11:19 pm
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