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Don Dailey

Joined: 29 Apr 2008
Posts: 4322

Post subject: Re: Number 1 engine on long time controls    Posted: Mon Feb 27, 2012 1:35 pm

Uri Blass wrote:
 Don wrote: It's doesn't HAVE to become superior, but if it is gaining more ELO per doubling that Houdni, then the logicial conclusion is that it WILL overtake it. A less logical conclusion is that it will suddenly stop improving faster than Houdini, but you should at least present some rationale for thinking that is likely to happen.

"if it is gaining more ELO per doubling that Houdni, then the logicial conclusion is that it WILL overtake it."

One example may be enough to prove that the conclusion is wrong and
I guess that houdini 32 bits gain more ELO per doubling than houdini 64 bits because of diminishing returns but houdini 32 bits is not going to overtake houdini 64 bits at long time control.

That's true, but I am assuming that you are talking about 2 programs that are already in the same general strength category which make the effect you are speaking about a minor thing. You would not expect Houdini 32 to gain 20 ELO every time you double the level against Houdini 64, you probably would see something like 5 ELO or less.

But you do have a valid point. I could have rated all the players in a big pool like I did in this other study here:

http://komodochess.com/pub/scale.png

This is a graph where the X-axis is time (on a logarithmic scale) and the y-axis is the ELO rating. We can make the adjustment you suggest by simply moving any given line forward or backwards in the y (time) axis to "normalize" the ELO with time adjustments.

 Quote: I think that you need to start with not equal time control but with time control that gives result that is close to 50%

I'm going to restart the study and rate the programs together instead in order to address this concern.

 Quote: If you find that the program that use more time earns more from doubling in this case then it is more logical to think that it can beat the stronger program at long time control and even in this case it is not something that I feel sure about it.

I did not mention the draw factor either. As programs get stronger there are more and more draws which could be the biggest reason we see a decline in all programs with more time. I see this as a natural consequence of the fact that as programs think longer they get a little closer to perfect play. One could imagine that if the only thing happening is that Komodo was just drawing more games we would see it asymptotically approach Houdini's strength but never quite reach it.

So I rated all the games that were NOT draws to see if Houdini's advantage was more or less constant in decisive games - and the results were very similar, Komodo continues to win more decisive games with each doubling. I'm not sure how to interpret that result or if it has any particular significance but I thought it was interesting.

Here are the 2 tables - you can see the ELO change in the oppo column:

 Code: All data including draws: Rank Name      Elo      +      -    games   score   oppo.   draws                                       1 hou-00  3000.0   16.4   16.4    2000   68.1%  2865.7   21.7%                                       1 hou-01  3000.0   15.9   15.9    2000   63.5%  2903.0   24.5%                                       1 hou-02  3000.0   15.5   15.5    2000   60.8%  2925.4   28.7%                                       1 hou-03  3000.0   15.4   15.4    2000   57.7%  2947.2   29.7%                                       1 hou-04  3000.0   15.2   15.2    2000   55.8%  2960.5   32.1%                                       1 hou-05  3000.0   15.5   15.5    1867   54.1%  2972.9   35.4%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                With draws removed:                                                                                                                                                                                        Rank Name      Elo      +      -    games   score   oppo.   draws                                       1 hou-00  3000.0   21.7   21.7    1567   73.1%  2787.9    0.0%                                       1 hou-01  3000.0   21.1   21.1    1510   67.9%  2839.7    0.0%                                       1 hou-02  3000.0   21.4   21.4    1426   65.1%  2865.7    0.0%                                       1 hou-03  3000.0   21.1   21.1    1407   61.0%  2902.4    0.0%                                       1 hou-04  3000.0   21.3   21.3    1359   58.6%  2924.6    0.0%                                       1 hou-05  3000.0   22.5   22.5    1202   56.2%  2945.6    0.0%

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