SF does not consider c5.PK wrote:I think 15...f4 and 15...Nf6 are about equal. Black's setup is far from ideal of a KID attacking setup, whereas White has already made some progress on queenside. At first I thought that Nb3 is the key move (simultaneously preparing Nfd2 and c5), but then Black has just enough time to get g5-g4 at about the same time White gest c5xd6.
15...f4 16.Nb3 g5 16.h3 Ng6 17.Nfd2 h5 18.f3 Nf6 19.c5 and now either 19...Qd7 or 19...g4!?
Still, 15...f4 in this piece setup feels a bit premature. It takes the pressure off White's pawn chain, thus giving White free hand on the queenside. However the line that I have just given shows that normal moves are not enough to prove it. That leaves only
15...f4 16.c5!
Black really cannot take the pawn:
16... dxc5? 17. bxc5 Nxc5 18. Ba3 Nd7 19. Qb3
So the correct line might be something like:
15...f4 16.c5! Nf6 17.Nc4 g5 18.h3 Ng6 when White at has interesting options of 19. Qb3 and of delaying 19. Nh2
c5 leaves unguarded the b5 square, and black takes advantage of that, playing Nc8-a7-b5.
With your line, something like this could arise:
[d]r3q1rk/1p1n2b1/p2p4/Pn1Pp1pp/1PN1Pp2/7P/1B1N1PP1/2RQR1K1 w - - 0 11
I think all the lines more or less transpose, leaving black with advantage in all cases. But black should be very careful when to attack on the king side and when to care for neutralising white breaks on the queen side and sacrifices in the center, on e5 for example.
The exact move order is very important, but in all lines I think Kh8, Rg8, Qe8-g6, as well as Nc8, warding off c5 and b5 breaks, are necessary key moves.
When I analysed this a bit, I tried different variations with the help of SF, and in the predominant majority of them, if not all, black had the upper hand. So that I really think the position is won for black or at least black has considerable advantage.
It is an irony that SF evaluates the position before 15...f4 with some 40cps white edge, and then immediately after f4 it thinks white's edge has increased to more than 80cps... As you see, whenever an engine thinks one side gets big advantage after a certain move, that is a clear indication the opponent should play exactly that move, as it seems to be good.
I am a poor searcher, miss many tactical things, but I evaluate positions much better than engines. So that I do not need to search a lot to find the best move: I just check the root position, and of the existing 20-30 moves, 5 of them reasonable, I pick up simply the move with the best score.
For me it is obvious, without doing any search, black is much better in the initial position.