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Joined: 06 May 2009
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Location: Fuquay-Varina, North Carolina

Post subject: Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu    Posted: Sat Mar 17, 2012 9:43 pm

Houdini wrote:
 Adam Hair wrote: I am using the results of one random sample to predict (although after the fact) the results of another random sample. The computation of a prediction interval makes use of the sample mean, sample variance, and Student's T distribution, but not Sqrt(2).

My number is an approximation but should be reasonably accurate. Can you provide a better value?

My actual source is a statistical textbook, but the Wikipedia entry for "prediction interval" also has the formula for computing the endpoints of the interval. For computing the variance, I used the approximation Error = 100%* Sqrt((score*(1-score)-0.25*draw%)/games).

If we were comparing the two samples in terms as point estimates for the true score, then I understand how Sqrt(2) comes into play.

Houdini wrote:

 Adam Hair wrote: However, we probably would not have predicted Brent's results from looking solely at Ingo's results, which by the way are the most similar to Brent's conditions.

The whole point is that I am not in the least surprised by finding a 53% and a 60% outcome in similar 100-game matches.
There is no statistical surprise nor any practical surprise - I see this kind of results every day, don't you?

Robert

I agree with you, especially since no consideration of any measurement error has been made. My only point is that, basing a prediction on Ingo's results, a 60% score for Houdini vs Critter in Brent's test may be unexpected. Of course, when taking everything into account, the surprise evaporates.
 Display posts from previous: All Posts1 Day7 Days2 Weeks1 Month3 Months6 Months1 Year Oldest FirstNewest First
Subject Author Date/Time
Brent M Fri Mar 16, 2012 2:50 pm
Robert Houdart Fri Mar 16, 2012 3:15 pm
Brent M Fri Mar 16, 2012 3:23 pm
Robert Houdart Fri Mar 16, 2012 4:08 pm
Adam Hair Sat Mar 17, 2012 1:02 pm
Robert Houdart Sat Mar 17, 2012 2:27 pm
Marijan Stipancic jr Sat Mar 17, 2012 3:37 pm
Robert Houdart Sun Mar 18, 2012 1:49 am
Marijan Stipancic jr Sun Mar 18, 2012 2:19 am
Bram Mourik Sun Mar 18, 2012 11:03 am
Robert Houdart Sun Mar 18, 2012 12:38 pm
Adam Hair Sat Mar 17, 2012 4:25 pm
Robert Houdart Sat Mar 17, 2012 7:32 pm
Re: Critter 1.4a x64 SSE4 vs Houdini 2.0c Pro x64 match resu Adam Hair Sat Mar 17, 2012 9:43 pm
Robert Houdart Sat Mar 17, 2012 10:43 pm
Adam Hair Sun Mar 18, 2012 12:26 am
Brent M Mon Mar 19, 2012 12:33 am
Robert Houdart Mon Mar 19, 2012 11:38 am
Brent M Mon Mar 19, 2012 12:24 pm
Richard Vida Mon Mar 19, 2012 12:57 pm
Brent M Mon Mar 19, 2012 1:03 pm
pal larkin Wed Mar 21, 2012 3:07 am
Richard Allbert Sun Mar 18, 2012 1:25 pm
Robert Houdart Sun Mar 18, 2012 2:03 pm
Richard Allbert Sun Mar 18, 2012 3:35 pm
Dr.Wael Deeb Sun Mar 18, 2012 5:59 pm

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